Rarely have Bloomberg and Reuters shown such consensus on OPEC surveys as they did in July, both estimating OPEC production at just over 32 million barrels per day – a very high level of output given the lack of exports from Iran and Libya. Besides record-high Saudi Arabian production, a strikingly high level of production in Iraq is playing its part in this, which this summer has risen to over 4 million barrels per day for the first time, notes Commerzbank.?Exports from southern Iraq climbed to a new record high of 3.064 million barrels per day in July. By contrast, exports from the Kurdish north are now likely to grind to a complete halt as a result of the military conflict between the PKK and the Turkish Air Force. The risks to exports from the Middle East and to non-OPEC production are currently being ignored by the market, which is hardly surprising in view of the increasingly negative sentiment on the oil market, says Commerzbank.?
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